Home / Opinion / Why Nuix may not be done yet

Why Nuix may not be done yet

Opinion

The Nuix Ltd (ASX: NXL) share price went up around 7.5% today. It’s rebounding strongly.

What’s happening?

Nuix is seeing a recovery after the heavy selloff earlier in the week. It’s still down 11% from the end of last week. But now it isn’t down as much.

  • A few days ago Nuix lowered its guidance for revenue against the IPO prospectus numbers it was expecting.

    Pro forma revenue is now expected to be between $180 million to $185 million (down from the expected $193.5 million). Annualised contract value (ACV) is now expected to be in a range of $168 million to $177 million (down from $199.6 million).

    The 15% drop in the Nuix share price was caused by a few different reasons.

    An acceleration in the customer transition to consumption and software as a service (SaaS) licences impacts the revenue profile but delivers significant long-term business model benefits.

    The company also reported that the current operating climate has reduced near-term upsell opportunities, while revenue from renewals and new business remain in line with expectations.

    Some of Nuix’s law firm, advisory and service provider customers have also recently informed the company of a reduced add-on requirement for existing licenses. This was partly due to the recovery of legal case backlog being slower than anticipated.

    However, the company reported strong underlying business performance with substantial increases in new customers won and total and average order values, compared to the same period in FY20.

    Positive comments from management

    Nuix CEO Rod Vawdrey said: “The fundamental drivers for Nuix are strong and underpinned by a growing order book and pipeline. It reflects the underlying strength of the Nuix software offering, a sticky, loyal customer base, strong growth in new business and an increase in order size.”

    Broker thoughts on the Nuix share price

    The broker outfit Morgan Stanley has changed its price target for Nuix to $7.50 (down from $10.75), but that still suggests a massive potential rise of around 60% over the next 12 months. Morgan Stanley pointed out that short term demand from the US is hurting, as well as the strong Australian dollar.

    Morgan Stanley still thinks that Nuix has a solid long term future and that it’s valued at 53 times the estimated earnings for the 2022 financial year.

    Information warning: The information in this article was published by The Rask Group Pty Ltd (ABN: 36 622 810 995) and is limited to factual information or (at most) general financial advice only. That means, the information and advice does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not specific to you, your needs, goals or objectives. Because of that, you should consider if the advice is appropriate to you and your needs, before acting on the information. If you don’t know what your needs are, you should consult a trusted and licensed financial adviser who can provide you with personal financial product advice. In addition, you should obtain and read the product disclosure statement (PDS) before making a decision to acquire a financial product. Please read our Terms and Conditions and Financial Services Guide before using this website. The Rask Group Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (#1280930) of AFSL #383169.


    Related
    The cost of aged care: Its bark is worse than its bite

    Australians can be confident that when the time comes to leave the family home and move into aged care, they will be given the appropriate support.

    Anthony Asher | 4th Dec 2024 | More
    Why baby boomers are opting to retire their industry fund

    APRA-regulated funds, especially profit-for-member funds, have had a good innings during the accumulation phase. It’s proving a different story in the decumulation phase with a growing number of members demanding a far more nuanced service.

    Drew Meredith | 27th Nov 2024 | More
    Gold might be any port in a storm in a Trump universe

    While a surging gold price is on hold as the world adjusts to a Trump presidency, all the factors that saw its price rise more than 50 per during his first term in office – trade disputes, fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions – are almost certainly guaranteed the second time around.

    Nicholas Way | 20th Nov 2024 | More
    Popular