Doug Goodwille from Kayne Anderson speaks to Drew Meredith from The Inside Network on market thinkers.
While a surging gold price is on hold as the world adjusts to a Trump presidency, all the factors that saw its price rise more than 50 per during his first term in office – trade disputes, fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions – are almost certainly guaranteed the second time around.
What China’s slowdown means for Australia
China’s economic growth has gone from bad to worse – on the Middle Kingdom’s lofty statistical standards, that is – after official data showed that third-quarter GDP came in at 4.9 per cent annual, short of the expected 5.0 per cent predicted by analysts. It was also three percentage points lower than the 7.9 per cent rebound recorded in the April-to-June quarter.
It comes on the back of slowing industrial production, which rose by a weaker-then-expected 3.1 per cent year-on-year in September, versus the consensus forecast of 4.5%. This figure was amplified by the spillover from Evergrande’s massive debt problems. The property giant is under a mountain of debt, and is likely to formally default on the payment of two bond issues which were due for payment on September 23. It was given another 30 days’ grace to make good on the payments before formal default. The issue here is that a default could cause an uncontrollable contagion effect that could have far-reaching consequences well outside the borders of China.
While Evergrande is the largest and most high-profile of China’s property developers, rumours are that there is a long list of Chinese property developers that have been missing interest repayments. It only highlights the extent to which concerns over the nation’s over-leveraged property sector have spread.
Economic growth also slowed due to power shortages, rising energy costs, floods, and a widespread shortage of computer chips. September’s GDP number was the weakest outcome the country has recorded in a year. Rising energy costs and power shortages come on the back of a shortage in coal and LNG. This sparked blackouts and power rationing.
And then, adding onto that, a pre-Glasgow crackdown on carbon emissions saw steel and cement industries being forced to cut production to limit their pollution (and use less power, which was arguably the real purpose of the edict).
On the positive side, Chinese exports held up and retail sales were good. There were rises in the sale of jewellery (20.1% vs 7.4% in August), cosmetics (3.9% vs a flat reading), personal care, home appliances (6.6% vs -5.0%) and building materials (13.3% vs 13.5%).
And finally, iron ore. Experts are forecasting a weaker outlook for iron ore for the next six months which is like to spell weakness in our biggest iron ore miners – BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals.
What does all this tell us?
There is no quick solution to the Chinese property downturn and a wider economic contraction. A large proportion of the country’s fortunes are tied to its giant property sector, which is in dire straits at the moment. It will require the full force of the government to control lending practices and activity. A failure to act by the government could see an implosion of China’s property sector, which would have far-ranging consequences.
