Shanghai in lockdown with economists predicting dire fallouts

While much of the world is recovering post-Covid, Shanghai has been forced into a Covid lockdown. In a surprising turn of events, the city’s 25 million people were forced into a strict lockdown almost four weeks ago by Government officials to cope with a new wave of Covid. This has since spread to Beijing.

The number of new confirmed COVID cases has pushed past the 22,248 daily mark, with the city recording more than 320,000 cases since early March. However, growing anger is spreading among citizens opposed to the strict measures, saying the growing discontent about authorities’ handling of the pandemic could create hurdles for China. Over the last few weeks, Shanghai residents have had a lack of access to food and basic necessities.

Indian newspaper the Economic Times says, “Many fund managers are rolling-out sleeping bags on trading floors across Shanghai and Shenzhen. Traders are volunteering to take turns camping-out in their offices to avoid restrictions sweeping through the cities at a time when Chinese capital markets are experiencing the biggest bout of volatility since mid-2020.”

Asset management firms and brokerages in Shanghai have been asking employees to stay for days to keep operations going throughout the lockdown. Staff have been sleeping in the office, with one asset management firm offering an extra 2000 yuan ($415) a night to camp-out on weekdays and 4000 yuan over the weekend.

Shanghai is the financial hub of China and is experiencing volatile swings in its share market. The city is home to more than 1500 financial institutions and houses one of the country’s two stock exchanges, as well as the futures and gold exchanges. The Shanghai Composite index is down almost 5 per cent this month, while trading volumes are down almost 30 per cent below the three-month average, as reported in the Australian Financial Review.

There are concerns of the economic repercussions from this lockdown. This week, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Chinese 1Q GDP was up by 4.8 per cent but this figure does not take into account the Shanghai lockdown, which is likely to have a huge effect.

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) and Ramsay Healthcare (ASX:RHC) have significant exposure to China but according to Wilson Asset Management, both stocks are poised to do well from the increase in volatility, especially due to commodity prices. The fund manager says higher commodity prices will help to bring about higher earnings in FY23; BHP with a higher iron ore price, as the Chinese government promises to stimulate the economy, and RHC because of the growing backlog of private and public hospital admissions after suspensions of elective surgeries due to COVID lockdowns.

However, overall, these lockdowns will have a knock-on effect with consumer spending and unemployment. Recent numbers show joblessness hitting its highest level since the early part of the pandemic.

Ishan Dan

Ishan is an experienced journalist covering The Inside Investor and The Insider Adviser publications.