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China to drive resources in face of weaker growth: Ausbil
Despite slowing US and European economic growth, Chinese growth is likely to accelerate following its hard COVID lockdowns and stimulus efforts. As it did during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), China may insulate local resources and commodities companies from the impact of slowing world growth.
“The US and broader western developed economies are slowing, driven by increased central bank intervention with the goal to stem surging inflation,” Ausbil Investment Management said in a recent research paper.
There are some similarities between the GFC and the current environment that have helped the team at Ausbil assess the potential impact on commodities demand.
“China is seeing an acceleration in growth forecasts, driven by the announcement and expectation of stimulus measures following extended lockdowns,” the report explained.
“China is effectively already in a similar position to late 2008 when stimulus measures were announced. The economy has already slowed, and stimulus measures are being announced at a scale larger than in 2008, albeit off a larger economic base.”
Assessing metal demand around the GFC
The report showed that as China exited the GFC demand for copper, nickel and iron ore increased significantly.
“China is without question a dominant force in commodities, consuming at least 50 per cent of core commodities. Iron ore is absolutely dominated by China, with in excess of 70 per cent of global demand, but Chinese demand for all key commodities exceeds 50 per cent,” the report illustrated.
While the outlook for the west has weakened, China is stimulating growth.
“Given that China represents at least 50 per cent of commodity demand, we believe commodities are likely to benefit from Chinese stimulus which is yet to hit the ground.”
“From our perspective, physical activity has been constrained by lockdowns to date, but this is alleviating (albeit outside small flare-ups in COVID cases). We therefore expect that Chinese demand is likely to accelerate in the coming months.”
