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Crown dodges a bullet; is it time to get bullish?
Reading the media headlines this morning, “Is Crown too big to fail in Melbourne” and “Crown lucky to escape the Victorian Royal Commission with its licence intact,” was enough to recognise the power that Crown Casino still yields in Victoria, despite being brought to its knees by a Royal Commission hell-bent on making the casino pay for its lawlessness.
Shares in the eponymous operator Crown Resorts (ASX: CWN) were up almost 10 per cent yesterday after the decision was made to give Crown’s Melbourne casino one more chance after the fallout from a cancellation of its gaming licence was deemed to be far worse an outcome. Without Crown, the Victorian economy would take a huge hit, from both tourism numbers and tax revenue. About 12,000 people would be out of a job, considering Crown is the largest employer in the state. That’s a cool $300 million in tax revenue that would be forfeited. Sitting on the Yarra in the city’s usually (pre-COVID) thriving Southbank precinct, Crown has deep cultural and political roots in the city. In the event that its licence were to be cancelled, a new foreign owner would not have as deep an understanding of Melbourne, causing a knock-on effect to the city’s vibrance.
Suffice to say, Crown has already failed. Not only because of its potentially illegal, dishonest, and unconscionable conduct, or its breaches of tax regulations and responsible gaming operations, but because of its failure to stop harm to Australian gamblers and their families and to the integrity of Australian law.
According to media reports, the final ruling came down to an analogy about a stolen car. Former federal court judge Finkelstein compared Crown’s actions to a person who has been charged with grand theft auto. “Isn’t it in the public interest to punish the thief?” Michael Borsky, QC, asked, pointing out that the Royal Commission’s aim was not to punish Crown, but to find the best result for Victorians.
The Royal Commission decided not to cancel Crown’s Victorian gaming licence, but to issue 33 recommendations. One includes the appointment of a special manager to oversee Crown’s transformation. Crown Melbourne is one of the largest casinos in the world and will live to see another day. But the company will need to make significant changes to its casino operations and minimise the harm these cause, for it to survive in the long term.
Ord Minnett has given the stock a $15 target price following the significant de-rating throughout the inquiry. The market was factoring-in Crown being deemed unsuitable to hold its Melbourne licence. The broker’s positive view of the stock is based on business continuing trading and the potential upside from here.
