Doug Goodwille from Kayne Anderson speaks to Drew Meredith from The Inside Network on market thinkers.
While a surging gold price is on hold as the world adjusts to a Trump presidency, all the factors that saw its price rise more than 50 per during his first term in office – trade disputes, fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions – are almost certainly guaranteed the second time around.
Dividend boost sparks IAG’s recovery
Insurance Australia Group Limited (ASX: IAG) shares have fallen out of favour over the years. Its FY21 results may not help the situation.
IAG is the largest general insurance company in Australia and New Zealand. It sells insurance under many leading brands like NRMA Insurance, RACV and CGU Insurance.
Some of its key competitors include QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) and Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN).
IAG share price
FY21 revenue up but a net loss
IAG’s top line jumped with revenue increasing by 3.8% in FY21 relative to FY20. The company notes this was mainly driven by a hike in rates (premiums) rather than new customers.
However, IAG recorded a net loss of $427 million, a stark contrast to a net profit of $435 million in FY20.
Interestingly, the business advises the big loss was due to significant one-off corporate expenses relating to business interruption, customer refunds and payroll remediation.
Zooming into the annual report, we can see an increase in the provision for business interruption related claims due to the COVID-19 pandemic. How come?
The Supreme Court of New South Wales Court of Appeal made a judgement that certain pandemic related policy exclusion wordings were ineffective, resulting in IAG needing to account for potential future claims.
Why is this important?
IAG generates profit on the spread between the premium charged and claims it needs to payout. If claims like those related to the pandemic in NSW ramp up, this will reduce IAG’s margins.
More importantly, lower profits result in limiting IAG’s potential dividend.
IAG declared a final dividend of 13 cents per share and this has been on the decline.
FY22 outlook
In terms of revenue, IAG expects ‘low single-digit’ growth primarily driven by continued rate (premium) increases.
IAG also expects its margins to fall within 13.5-15.5% assuming the COVID-19 situation improves, executing rate (premium) increases as well as other factors.
My take on IAG
The last two years have been a torrid time for insurance companies given the pandemic and rise in natural disasters like bushfires.
As you can see, when such catastrophes occur, things can quickly turn pear-shaped.
This is why at Rask, we prefer to invest in businesses that are less influenced by external forces and are more ‘weather-proof’.
IAG’s guidance assumes things returning to normal but the recent spread of the delta variant suggests otherwise. In such difficult circumstances, increasing premiums could lead to a rise in customer churn.
The IAG business is in a pickle on the revenue side as well as expenses, so a lot needs to go right for it to turn around.
Information warning: The information in this article was published by The Rask Group Pty Ltd (ABN: 36 622 810 995) and is limited to factual information or (at most) general financial advice only. That means, the information and advice does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not specific to you, your needs, goals or objectives. Because of that, you should consider if the advice is appropriate to you and your needs, before acting on the information. If you don’t know what your needs are, you should consult a trusted and licensed financial adviser who can provide you with personal financial product advice. In addition, you should obtain and read the product disclosure statement (PDS) before making a decision to acquire a financial product. Please read our Terms and Conditions and Financial Services Guide before using this website. The Rask Group Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (#1280930) of AFSL #383169.
