Doug Goodwille from Kayne Anderson speaks to Drew Meredith from The Inside Network on market thinkers.
While a surging gold price is on hold as the world adjusts to a Trump presidency, all the factors that saw its price rise more than 50 per during his first term in office – trade disputes, fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions – are almost certainly guaranteed the second time around.
Has China killed crypto?
Last week, China sent a strong message to the cryptocurrency world. In an unprecedented move it banned all cryptocurrencies in the country, making it illegal to transact. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) issued a warning saying, “virtual currency-related business activities are illegal financial activities.”
The government has long seen Bitcoin and other forms of cryptocurrencies as a volatile and speculative investment at best, and at worst, a doorway to launder money, or at least get money out of China.
Since the announcement last week, exchanges have been scrambling to dump Chinese investors before the ban comes into full effect. China’s measures target over-the-counter crypto services, crypto derivatives exchanges and offshore crypto exchanges that have businesses or operations in the country. But even this may not be enough, as it’s very difficult to ban crypto.
China once housed over 50 per cent of the world’s Bitcoin miners. However, after the crackdowns began, the miners deserted China in search of safer jurisdictions. The miners have come back, whether inside China or elsewhere. Crypto possession isn’t illegal… yet.
This hasn’t come as a surprise, as China had already banned cryptocurrencies a few times in the past. To be exact, since 2009, China has “banned” crypto on more than 19 separate occasions. The difference this time around is that there’s no grey area. The foot’s down. Anyone caught will be prosecuted. Longstanding loopholes that allow Chinese investors to hold crypto via offshore such as Huobi, have also been closed.
This time it’s for real, but why?
It’s not a straightforward answer but it would seem the reasons behind China’s cryptocurrency ban are to do with control more than anything else. China was never an advocate of cryptocurrency right from day dot. It sees cryptocurrency and its mining as a threat to its sovereignty and is increasingly looking to crack-down on gambling and speculation. Cryptocurrency is driven by speculation. It’s also a decentralised currency based on democratic principles that can threaten Beijing’s Communist ideology. The other reason is that China has its own plans to release the “digital yuan,” which are well into the advanced stages of being rolled out.
For the Chinese Communist Party, it’s all about control and making another power-play move in its rivalry with the US. A digital yuan will be China’s version of a digital currency that is entirely controlled by its central bank. Named the “digital currency electronic payment (DCEP),” the digital currency is aimed at dethroning and replacing the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. But that’s not all. This new digital currency will also give the CCP all sorts of authoritarian powers to monitor and control its population. Unlike Bitcoin, which was designed around encryption and anonymity, the Chinese digital yuan is just another eye built for surveillance.
China’s ban is, however, good news for cryptocurrency. It’s good news politically, economically, and environmentally. The ban makes it less likely to be hacked, attacked or aggressively regulated here at home and makes it easier for companies outside China to compete and mine Bitcoins.
Competition aside, what is clear is that China’s decentralised cryptocurrency sector is over.
