AMP

The chief economist says rapidly falling inflation, high savings levels and a lack of excess are among the reasons this pivotal moment could pass without the major downturn that many have long dreaded. But AMP still puts recession odds at 50/50, and rate cuts will likely need to precede any growth rebound.

Two new reports show Australia lags other developed countries on financial literacy, with systemic issues making the gap between men and women even starker. These deficits translate to worse retirement outcomes, as the financially less literate can miss out on thousands of dollars in income each year.

The Financial Services Council commissioned the Retirement Income Policy Roadmap to help the superannuation system put greater emphasis on the drawdown phase. Industry leaders say the biggest hurdle is a deeply entrenched fear of running out of money.

Multi-asset index funds offer the benefits of passive investment strategies with added diversification, says AMP’s Stephen Flegg, but investors should be aware of how a fund manager’s choices and risk profile may affect performance.

Corporate profit growth is expected to moderate, especially in sectors focussed on consumer sales, and mining companies have seen large downgrades. Meanwhile, markets are still not fully pricing in the high risk of recession, some analysts say.

Rate hikes are causing anxiety for Australian mortgage holders, with new research showing seven out of 10 worry about missing repayments. As large numbers of fixed-rate mortgages expire, analysts say distressed property selling is likely to pick up from its thus-far benign levels.

Four AMP Group businesses deducted insurance premiums and advice fees from superannuation customers despite knowing they had died, a judge ruled, with two of the companies – AMP Life and AMP Financial Planning – hit with $24 million in penalties.

The March quarter’s Selected Living Cost Indexes – which include mortgage costs, giving a fuller view of inflation’s real impact than the Consumer Price Index – show employee households and mortgage holders both saw record increases in their cost of living. And with rate hikes continuing to flow through the economy, more pain is on the horizon.

Economists attributed the rebound partly to the market’s expectations that interest rates had peaked. But the other key driver – the drastic supply/demand imbalance – means higher prices, especially for rents, may be further complicating the central bank’s task.

The average annual interest rate on banks’ one- and three- year term deposits has risen to 3.2 per cent from 0.25 per cent over the past year. With markets expecting the official cash rate to peak soon, savers looking to lock in attractive rates will find the best deals with smaller, newer banks, analysts say.