diana mousina

The financial services giant’s top economists look at the risks that dominated markets this year and how they’re likely to evolve in 2024, warning that the new year could be a “rougher and more constrained ride” compared with 2023.

Higher bond yields are making fixed income fundamentally more attractive than it was during years of ultra-low interest rates. AMP’s Diana Mousina and Chris Baker recently discussed the opportunity set as investors look to add income and defensiveness in a new paradigm.

Australian consumers are showing real signs the largest and longest rate hiking cycle in 30 years is starting to bite. It might be the proof the RBA needs to see that its fight against inflation is working, adding further weight to the theory that rate rises are behind us.

Shares of the in-demand chip maker hit an all-time high of US$502 on the back of a strong profit report, and analysts say it could be set for more gains, despite rising US bond yields complicating the outlook for equities and especially tech stocks.

Recently released wages data increased the likelihood the RBA will pause its rate hiking campaign for the near term, economists say. Meanwhile, an increase in full-time employment, and the wages they earn for it, has helped narrow Australia’s gender wages gap to its lowest-ever level.

Two new reports show Australia lags other developed countries on financial literacy, with systemic issues making the gap between men and women even starker. These deficits translate to worse retirement outcomes, as the financially less literate can miss out on thousands of dollars in income each year.

Rate hikes are causing anxiety for Australian mortgage holders, with new research showing seven out of 10 worry about missing repayments. As large numbers of fixed-rate mortgages expire, analysts say distressed property selling is likely to pick up from its thus-far benign levels.

As the economy tilts toward recession, portfolio analysts are turning towards sectors and companies that handle cloudy conditions better than most. Healthcare, energy, consumer staples and utilities come into focus, while cyclical sector companies lose favour.

The March quarter’s Selected Living Cost Indexes – which include mortgage costs, giving a fuller view of inflation’s real impact than the Consumer Price Index – show employee households and mortgage holders both saw record increases in their cost of living. And with rate hikes continuing to flow through the economy, more pain is on the horizon.

AMP recently promoted senior economist Diana Mousina to a new role, deputy chief economist, in recognition of her achievements and succession path. Like other economists, Mousina sees a recession on the cards for Australia, although the timeline may be longer than many hope.